Mathematical model of Covid-19 pandemic based on retarded differential equation
We propose a mathematical model of Covid-19 pandemic preserving an optimal balance between the model precision and simplicity for practical estimates. As base equations, we derive two-parameter nonlinear _first-order ordinary differential equations with retarded time argument, applicable to any community (country, city, etc.). Examples of modeling the pandemic development are presented depending on two parameters: the time of possible dissemination of infection by one virus carrier and the probability of contamination of a healthy individual in a contact with an infected one per unit time, e.g, a day. The results show qualitative agreement with the available statistics of Covid-19 pandemic. The proposed model is compared with the conventional SIR model.
Saratov State University
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